Evolving threats to U.S. homeland security : Homeland Threat Assessment 2025

Summary:

The Homeland Threat Assessment 2025 outlines the evolving threats to the U.S. homeland in the coming year, emphasizing challenges in public safety, border and immigration security, critical infrastructure, and economic security. Key concerns include persistent terrorism threats, illegal drug trafficking, nation-state influence operations, and cyberattacks on critical infrastructure. Domestic and foreign actors exacerbate vulnerabilities through technological misuse, geopolitical tensions, and organized crime. Additionally, environmental changes and economic manipulation by adversarial nations, especially China, further stress national resilience.

Key Facts:

  1. Terrorism Threats:

• Lone offenders and small groups remain the greatest domestic threats.

• Foreign terrorist organizations (e.g., ISIS, al-Qa’ida) continue to inspire attacks.

  1. Drug Trafficking:

• Fentanyl remains the deadliest drug trafficked into the U.S.

• Mexico-based cartels dominate drug smuggling operations.

  1. Nation-State Influence:

• China, Russia, and Iran use misinformation, cyber espionage, and coercion to undermine U.S. institutions.

• Generative AI amplifies disinformation campaigns and cyber threats.

  1. Critical Infrastructure:

• Cyberattacks targeting sectors like energy and communications are likely to escalate.

• The PRC has pre-positioned capabilities for potential future cyber operations against U.S. networks.

  1. Economic Security:

• China’s economic practices, including intellectual property theft and forced labor, harm U.S. competitiveness.

• Supply chains remain vulnerable to foreign manipulation and environmental disruptions.

  1. Migration Trends:

• Encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border decreased in 2024 but remain a significant challenge due to socioeconomic drivers.

  1. Technological Challenges:

• AI technologies are exploited by malicious actors for misinformation, social engineering, and advanced cyberattacks.

  1. Election-Related Risks:

• 2024 elections are targets for domestic and foreign threats aimed at undermining confidence in democratic processes.

Let me know if you’d like further detail on any section!

Assessment

In this assessment, the two most dangerous threats to the U.S. homeland in the coming year, as identified in the “Homeland Threat Assessment 2025" by the Department of Homeland Security, are cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure and the proliferation of synthetic opioids, particularly fentanyl. Cyber threats continue to escalate as state-sponsored and criminal actors grow more adept at infiltrating vital systems—ranging from power grids and water treatment plants to healthcare networks—potentially causing severe disruptions to daily life, public safety, and economic stability (Homeland Threat Assessment 2025, p. 22). At the same time, the surge in synthetic opioids, driven by transnational criminal organizations, has resulted in a record number of overdose deaths, eroding community health and resilience across the nation (p. 6). Both threats were selected because they present immediate, tangible harm to citizens while undermining longer-term national security, stability, and confidence in core institutions.

Policymakers have several avenues for mitigating these dangers through coordinated, multi-layered approaches. To counter cyberattacks, bolstering cybersecurity infrastructure, strengthening public-private partnerships, and enhancing global cooperation can improve system resilience. The expansion of basic digital literacy across communities—often referred to as digital force protection (DFP)—is critical, however, to help citizens identify malign information, avoid falling victim to online deception, and strengthen the collective capacity to thwart intrusions. For the fentanyl crisis, increasing border controls, employing advanced screening technologies, and forging international agreements to disrupt supply lines should be complemented by domestic measures that include expanded access to treatment services, widespread educational campaigns, and targeted law enforcement efforts (Homeland Threat Assessment 2025, p. 6, p. 25). By integrating technical defenses, informed populations, international collaboration, and community-based initiatives, policymakers can build more robust safeguards against both cyber incursions and the lethal spread of synthetic opioids.

Department of Homeland Security. (2025). Homeland Threat Assessment 2025. U.S. Department of Homeland Security. https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2024-10/24_0930_ia_24-320-ia-publication-2025-hta-final-30sep24-508.pdf